Political analyst predicts LNP to retain safe seat of Wright

LNP incumbent Scott Buchholz is expected to hold the seat of Wright despite an anti-government swing.

SAFE SEAT: LNP incumbent Scott Buchholz is expected to retain Wright at the upcoming federal election. Photo: Jacob Wilson

SAFE SEAT: LNP incumbent Scott Buchholz is expected to retain Wright at the upcoming federal election. Photo: Jacob Wilson

Mr Buchholz is being challenged by Labor's Pam McCreadie and vocal minor party and independent candidates including Matt Tomlinson and Innes Larkin.

Other candidates include Shannon Girard from the Greens, Rod Smith from Fraser Anning's Conservative National Party, One Nation's Chris O'Callaghan and David Wright from Clive Palmer's United Australia Party.

Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams said the seat of Wright was not on anyone's radar.

"Wright is nearly on a 10 per cent margin. Labor won't take it. Even if Malcolm Turnbull was still leader it would be an uphill battle," he said.

"There are a lot of Adani sympathisers in Wright and a lot of people impressed with Scott Morrison's conservatism and unimpressed with Labor and Bill Shorten's union links.

"It is an electorate which is cranky about the capital city dominating regional interests. It behaves more like central Queensland in many respects."

Mr Buchholz is expected to retain the seat despite encountering some controversy.

A female defence officer lodged a complaint against Mr Buchholz after what is understood to have been an unsolicited hug during a parliamentary exchange last year.

Mr Buchholz apologised over the incident.

In the 2016 election, Labor candidate Alistair Smith secured a 22.7 per cent primary vote, only marginally higher than One Nation's 20.9 per cent.

This time around Dr Williams predicts Labor's vote will increase.

"I think Labor's vote will improve to more than 25 per cent but is unlikely to get more than a third," he said.

"One Nation got a fifth of the vote last time and that will collapse. A lot of that vote will go to Palmer who will get a primary vote in the double digits."

The seat of Wright covers a large area, taking in parts of Logan and the Scenic Rim including Jimboomba, Beaudesert, Tamborine and Boonah.

The electorate also covers parts of the Gold Coast hinterland, Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba.

Leading up to election day, Mr Buchholz has announced funding for CCTV sites in Jimboomba and surrounding areas as well as community grants for groups including Tamborine Pony Club.

Labor candidate Pam McCreadie is campaigning on increased funding for local education and health services.

The federal election will be held on May 18.

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