New England Patriots v Jacksonville Jaguars, Monday, January 22, 7am
The Jaguars shocked the world last week, not by beating the Steelers, but in the manner in which they claimed the win. Of the few people who predicted a Jacksonville victory, most expected the way that they would win was through their elite defence carrying a disjointed offence to a gritty, low-scoring win.
That could not have been further from what happened. Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette and company scored 38 points (along with a fumble returned for a touchdown) as the Jaguars prevailed 45-42.
It's difficult to imagine a similar game playing out this week, but if it does, Jacksonville are in trouble. The way to beat the Patriots isn't to try and outscore them, it's to try and stop them. In the past when teams such the Ravens, Jets and Broncos have beaten New England, they've done so by getting to quarterback Tom Brady repeatedly, shutting down the rushing game and grinding out a win.
Just because the Jaguars didn't win like that last week, doesn't mean they won't this week. They have a fearsome defensive line that is more than capable of racking up sacks. Their 55 in the regular season put them second overall.
New England have the best coach of all time in Bill Belichick, and a great quarterback, but no game plan can account for a completely dominant pass rush. That's what Jacksonville need this week, and there's no reason it can't happen.
New England will do their job on defence, and the chance of another 40-plus scoreline in the Jacksonville column is close to zero. Bortles was superb last week, but very few quarterbacks have come into Foxboro and put on a show in the play-offs. Joe Flacco is just about the only one to do so.
But, even if they can only score a couple of times, they have the pieces to cause an upset in a low-scoring slugfest.
Prediction: Jaguars by 3
Philadelphia Eagles v Minnesota Vikings, Monday, January 22, 10.40am
We saw one of the craziest finishes in recent NFL history last weekend, the Vikings overcoming the Saints thanks to a touchdown on the last play of the game.
With the Super Bowl being held in Minnesota, the Vikings could be the first team in history to play in the big game in their own stadium - but first they'll have to travel to Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that refuses to quit, despite an injury to their star quarterback and MVP candidate, Carson Wentz.
Philadelphia saw off the Falcons last week in a low-scoring affair and will now host a Minnesota team that, at times, struggled against a New Orleans defence that is good, but far below the level of Philadelphia.
This should be a game completely dominated by defence and whichever team takes better care of the ball on offence should win the game. Wentz's replacement, Nick Foles, played well in the second half last week, and if he can be serviceable while the guys on the other side of the ball hold quarterback Case Keenum, wide receiver Stefon Diggs and the rest of the Vikings offence at bay, then the Eagles could well be heading back to the Super Bowl.
That's a huge "if" though. The Vikings have feasted on below-average quarterbacks all season long and if someone is to win via a blowout, it will be the men in purple.
Prediction: Vikings by 7
