Westpac's veteran chief economist Bill Evans is unmoved by all the recent rate-hike talk.
In a somewhat surprising development, in recent weeks markets have moved to price in just shy of two quarter of a percentage point move in official rates by the end of next year, and three hikes by the end of 2019 amid positive signs around the strength of the economy.
Banks such as ANZ and National Australia Bank have come out with updated forecasts calling for twin RBA moves next year.
"Recall that in mid-August last year, these same players (markets and most other banks) were forecasting rate cuts over the course of the remainder of 2016 and 2017," the economists said.
"Westpac's view at that time was 'rates on hold' in 2016 and 2017."
Evans's view remains the next move higher will only come in mid-2019.
"Indeed we are not convinced that the cash rate will need to rise any time throughout the course of 2017, 2018 or 2019," he said.
"This approach is clearly different to the thinking of the Reserve Bank governor himself who expects to be tightening over that period. However, we continue to point out that the RBA has a very different growth outlook for the Australian economy and Australia's trading partners to our own."
While the central bank is projecting as its base case that the economy will grow by 3.25 per cent in 2018 and by 3.5 per cent in the next, Westpac economists reckon those growth rates will be more like a "below trend" 2.5 per cent in both years.
The list goes on: the RBA expects underlying inflation to run at 2 per cent in 2017 and 2018, and then 2.5 per cent in 2019. Evans says these estimates are "overly optimistic" and will be downgraded.
The RBA is upbeat on the potential for wages growth and household income; Evans points to global forces suppressing increases in workers' pay and that Australians are running down savings to fund consumption as they juggle heavy debt burdens, even as energy costs increase.
"Households will need to protect that fragile savings rate and pressures will emerge on consumer spending," Mr Evans said.
Plus, markets "may be underestimating the impact on the interest rate sensitive housing market" as banks lift lending rates without the intervention of tighter monetary policy.
Evans is also concerned that following China's National Congress, Chinese policymakers will begin to address the excessive level of corporate debt in the system, hurting growth.
"Finally, the ongoing legacy of elevated risk aversion, which continues ten years after the global financial crisis, is contributing to unusually steady interest rates around the world. Under our figuring, on the basis that this risk aversion persists for a few more years, a 40-month stretch of steady rates in Australia would not be out of place."
